Watching the 2026 Oscars will likely be a nailbiter for greater than a number of classes. For the reason that Academy Awards marks the tip of the awards season (and a protracted one at that for this 12 months), the result for a lot of the present tends to be a foregone conclusion after the outcomes of the BAFTAs, Actor Awards, Golden Globes, and extra. Whereas that is certainly the case for, say, One Battle After One other’s Paul Thomas Anderson for Greatest Director and Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley for Greatest Actress, there’s a handful of classes the place the anticipated frontrunner might moderately lose to the underdog. And that features a number of topline classes, like Greatest Actor and Greatest Supporting Actress.
The most important upsets on the 2026 Oscars might happen in six locations
Greatest Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan vs. Teyana Taylor vs. Wunmi Mosaku
Amongst the entire classes for the 2026 Oscars, Greatest Supporting Actress is essentially the most aggressive. Wanting on the newest odds (from March 11) from prediction markets, like Kalshi and Polymarket, Amy Madigan (Weapons) has earned round 52% of the bett, whereas Teyana Taylor (One Battle After One other) has about 25% and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) is holding onto roughly 21%.
This three-way race was nearer close to the start of March, however Madigan has since elevated her lead after successful the Actor Award for Greatest Supporting Actress. Earlier within the 12 months, Taylor gained plenty of momentum after successful Greatest Supporting Actress on the Golden Globes, however she hasn’t been in a position to preserve that by the season. In the meantime, Mosaku most just lately obtained the Greatest Supporting Actress award on the BAFTAs and received as a part of the Actor Award for Excellent Efficiency by a Forged in a Movement Image, although she misplaced to Madigan within the particular person class.
Greatest Worldwide Movie: Sentimental Worth vs. The Secret Agent
Prediction markets have Sentimental Worth within the lead, although it doesn’t have essentially the most dominant place as a frontrunner. The Norwegian movie holds about 61% of the betting market, with The Secret Agent getting 26% to 34%. This roughly 30-point margin continues to be substantial for Sentimental Worth, however each films have obtained main awards so the competitors stays shut.
Whereas the pair of movies are each nominated for Greatest Image, Sentimental Worth has the sting so far as nominations are involved, with nods for Joachim Trier (Greatest Director), Renate Reinsve (Greatest Actress), Stellan Skarsgard (Greatest Supporting Actor), and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Greatest Supporting Actress). It has claimed spots for Greatest Unique Screenplay and Greatest Movie Enhancing as nicely.
By comparability, The Secret Agent has fewer nominations: Wagner Moura for Greatest Actor and Gabriel Domingues for the brand new class, Greatest Casting. So when it comes to physique of labor, Sentimental Worth stays the odds-on favourite. That stated, The Secret Agent did win Greatest Worldwide Function Movie on the Movie Unbiased Spirit Awards and the latest Satellite tv for pc Awards, so it’s not out of the image.
Greatest Actor: Michael B. Jordan vs. Timothée Chalamet
As we famous in a bit on Marty Supreme probably getting shut out on the Oscars, the momentum has drastically shifted towards Michael B. Jordan during the last week. His efficiency in Sinners garnered him the win on the Actor Awards for Excellent Lead Actor in a Movement Image at the start of March, and the chances now favor him for the Oscar as we head towards the ultimate stretch. Prediction markets have Jordan at round 56% of the wager whereas Marty Supreme’s Chalamet having to settle at about 35%.
At this level, it’s laborious to say whether or not Jordan successful or Chalamet successful could be the larger upset. Chalamet carried plenty of early momentum after incomes Greatest Actor (Musical or Comedy) on the Golden Globes, the place Jordan misplaced to Moura in Greatest Actor (Drama). In the meantime, Jordan has been in a position to dash into the lead in March, far sufficient forward that Chalamet might be thought of the underdog. Both means, somebody goes to be upset.
Greatest Supporting Actor: Sean Penn vs. Stellan Skarsgård
For his position as villain Col. Steven J. Lockjaw, Sean Penn has held regular because the frontrunner for Greatest Supporting Actor forward of Sentimental Worth’s Stellan Skarsgård. Penn has about 70% to 73% of the betting market on Kalshi and Polymarket, in comparison with Skarsgård’s 20%.
This wasn’t all the time the case as their positions flipped in late February when Penn received the BAFTA, and he has since maintained his lead along with his victory on the Actor Awards. Nevertheless, Skarsgård was in a position to seize the Golden Globe earlier within the 12 months and most just lately the Satellite tv for pc Award. If Skarsgård wins the Greatest Supporting Actor Oscar, which is usually offered at the start of the present, that may make Sentimental Worth’s win for Greatest Worldwide Movie extra of a certain wager over The Secret Agent.
Greatest Cinematography: Michael Bauman vs. Autumn Durald Arkapaw
The prediction markets for Greatest Cinematography has flipped a number of instances during the last three months. Earlier than the award season began in January, One Battle After One other’s Michael Bauman held the lead earlier than it shifted to Sinners’ Autumn Durald Arkapaw. Their positions then switched once more in the course of February.
That stated, prediction markets have Bauman holding a considerable lead at 73% whereas Arkapaw has an out of doors shot with roughly 20%. So far as late-game momentum, Bauman earned the win from the American Society of Cinematographers in March 8, which is a robust indication that he may also obtain the Oscar. That stated, if Arkapaw is ready to make a shock upset, it is going to give Sinners a push for Greatest Image.
Greatest Image: One Battle for One other vs. Sinners
With its wins on the Actor Awards, Sinners has a shot at taking dwelling the coveted Greatest Image award away from One Battle After One other. Not like the prediction markets for different classes, Sinners has kind of held 15% to 25% of the wager for the reason that begin of the award season, with One Battle After One other sustaining a large lead at about 70% to 80%. As of March 11, the previous has about 75% whereas the latter has roughly 20% to 23%, with Sinners gaining a slight quantity of momentum.
Nonetheless, it will likely be troublesome for Sinners to beat the its rival, with One Battle After One other having received Greatest Movie on the BAFTAs, the Critics’ Selection Awards, and the Golden Globes (for Greatest Image – Musical or Comedy), the place Sinners misplaced to Hamnet for Greatest Image – Drama. However the Ryan Coogler-directed movie is making a last-ditch cost that would push it towards an Oscar victory.
